Saxo vs IBKR Cutover Matrix

Current recommendation

• Keep Saxo as the production LT broker for now.
• Keep IBKR in shadow / evidence-collection mode only until the current blockers clear.
• Revisit cutover only after all three conditions are true:
• Paper Trading password reset blocker is cleared.
• 5 business days of parity observation are captured.
• Ticket #16633 Q3 (COB routing) is answered, or the team explicitly decides to stop waiting for that answer.

Scoring note

The weights below are working operator weights inferred from current blockers and runbooks, not a session-owner-approved policy. They are filled in so the document can drive day-to-day decisions, but any owner-specific weighting should replace them later.

Criterion	Saxo today	IBKR current status	Weight	Current gate	Evidence / notes
Fill rate	LIVE observations exist, but combo dead-letter cases remain [pending Saxo confirmation]	No production fill evidence yet; shadow / whatIf / Paper comparison is still ahead	14	Blocked on IBKR evidence	Current docs say cutover judgment should wait for a 5-business-day parity window.
Combo pricing	Credit spread combo bid zero / negative cases observed	Spread quote collector / parity pipeline skeleton is ready, but live spread parity is not complete yet	14	Blocked on parity data	saxo_escalation_checklist.md, ibkr_phase6_mvp_postmortem.md, and R5#13-R5#16 logs all point to parity evidence as the next step.
Execution transparency	Broker-side execution detail is limited	Better public execution-quality disclosure exists, but local evidence is still incomplete	8	Advantage IBKR on paper, not yet operationally proven	cob_routing_comparison.md shows IBKR public Rule 605/606 coverage; Saxo remains less transparent.
Routing control	COB routing answer is still pending in Ticket #16633	IBKR combo routing modes are documented publicly, but local combo execution path is not yet exercised	14	Blocked on Saxo answer and IBKR validation	Current blocker is still unresolved Q3 rather than missing documentation.
Session stability	Existing token-keeper flow is already in production	IBeam / gateway deploy lane exists, but unattended session stability still needs proof	12	Blocked on soak time	ibkr_phase6_mvp_postmortem.md says deployment lane exists, but runtime proof is still pending.
2FA burden	Already absorbed by the live Saxo flow	TOTP secret storage / rotation is required	5	Operational burden only	This is a secondary ops concern, not the main cutover blocker.
Market data entitlement	Live quote path exists, but combo interpretation is disputed	Market Data API acknowledgement and Paper account existence were confirmed, but live spread evidence is still incomplete	10	Partially unblocked	AGENTS context confirms entitlement prerequisites, but not end-to-end live parity yet.
Operational cost	Existing infra path is already sunk cost	Extra gateway / collector / secrets management are needed	5	Saxo cheaper today	No steady-state cost table is in current logs, so exact monthly delta remains [needs input from session owner].
Deployment complexity	Existing CI/CD path is established	Separate workflow / compose skeleton exists, but more moving parts remain	6	IBKR more complex today	ibkr_phase6_mvp_postmortem.md records the added gateway and env bootstrap lane.
Broker integration risk	Current LT runtime is coupled to Saxo but already battle-tested	New adapter lane is intentionally shadow-only and reversible	6	Keep reversible shadow mode	Current safe pattern is additive shadow, not hard cutover.
Support / escalation leverage	Ticket #16633 remains open with Q3 unanswered	IBKR parity data can strengthen escalation or a future replacement case	6	Gather evidence before deciding	saxo_escalation_checklist.md explicitly tracks parity evidence as attachment material.

Minimum cutover gate

1. Paper Trading password reset backend error is cleared and a local sanity flow succeeds.
2. 5 business days of Saxo vs IBKR parity artifacts are captured without a join / schema gap.
3. Saxo Q3 follow-up is sent by 2026-04-15 if still unanswered, with the current evidence bundle attached.
4. Final cutover scoring policy, if different from the working weights above, is confirmed by the session owner.

Current reading

• Saxo remains the only broker with a proven live operational lane.
• IBKR is no longer blocked on basic scaffold work, but it is still blocked on password reset recovery plus parity evidence.
• The safe near-term strategy is not "Saxo vs IBKR choose one today"; it is "keep Saxo primary while IBKR collects enough evidence to either strengthen the Saxo escalation or justify a later broker shift."